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BUSINESS AVIaTION
MARKET BRIEF

OVERVIEW

Q4 2024 marked a period of stability for the business jet market following unprecedented utilization and demand in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The market continued to demonstrate strength and resilience, evidenced by an increase in flight operations, continued strong backlogs, and a high volume of transactions. Inventory gradually increased throughout 2024, but declined in Q4 compared to Q3, and remained below pre-COVID norms. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment experienced steady growth and declining inflation levels, despite geopolitical uncertainty. Overall, the industry is poised for a strong start to 2025.

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Q4 2024 HIGHLIGHTS

  • Global economic growth continued through Q4, despite geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Flight operations increased 2.4 percent year-over-year in Q4 and were 1.6 percent higher than Q3, reflecting an enduring expansion in the user base for business aviation.
  • OEM backlogs increased 7.2 percent year-over-year in Q4.
  • The number of transactions was stable through the end of 2024 as OEMs worked to resolve supply chain and labor constraints, and there was consistent activity in the pre-owned market.
  • Aircraft availability increased in Q4 year-over-year but declined from the previous quarter as a result of strong transaction volume.
  • Most aircraft models experienced depreciation in line with historical norms during Q4. However, younger aircraft experienced less depreciation than older aircraft.

GLOBAL ECONOMY

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Many of the headwinds that affected the economy in 2023 persisted throughout 2024, including the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel/Gaza, as well as high interest rates. The global economy also experienced increased political uncertainty in 2024, including political disruptions in France and South Korea.ii Other factors that affected the economy in 2024 included de-globalization, trade conflicts, major elections in countries making up 38 percent of global GDP, and slower-than-expected growth in China.iii

Despite these headwinds, global GDP growth in 2024 was remarkably stable at around 2.7 percent. While inflation remained a concern, central banks were comfortable enough to begin lowering interest rates in 2024. While the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to slow rate cuts in 2025, European central banks plan to lower rates throughout 2025.iv A notable tailwind in 2024 was strengthening economies in East Asia, South Asia, and Central America.v The U.S. also experienced a strong economy in 2024, ending the year with low unemployment and steady GDP growth.vi Although some of the uncertainty of 2023 and 2024 should continue in 2025, 2024’s strong performance has allowed the global economy to enter the year on solid footing.

FLIGHT OPERATIONS

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In Q4 2024, flight operations increased by 2.4 percent year-over-year, driven primarily by growth in North America. In the U.S., strong demand during the fall travel season and winter holidays contributed to the increase, while geopolitical tensions led to declines in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Fractional operators remained the strongest segment in the market, continuing to demonstrate robust growth throughout the year.

In 2024, departures declined by 0.8 percent compared to 2023 and fell 2.3 percent from their peak in 2022 as business aircraft usage normalized following the post-COVID boom. However, flights increased by 1.6 percent in Q4 compared to Q3, following a pattern of sequential quarterly growth throughout 2024—including a 6.4 percent increase in Q2 and a 0.9 percent increase in Q3. As a result, Q4 flights surpassed Q4 2022 levels by 3.6 percent, despite the overall decline for the full year.

This strong Q4 performance further highlights a systemic expansion of the business aviation user base. Due to the industry’s inherent value proposition — offering personal safety, flexibility, productivity, and comfort — a significant proportion of new users post-COVID continued to rely on business aviation in Q4. Given these factors, flight operations are expected to remain at a healthy level in 2025.

OEM BACKLOGS

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OEM backlogs increased 7.2 percent year-over-year in Q4 2024, reaching $48.5 billion. Demand remained solid in the quarter, with orders continuing to grow compared to the previous year. This reflected sustained high demand for business jets amid a relatively low supply of young pre-owned aircraft. At the same time, Q4 deliveries did not increase as much as expected, as the industry continues working to resolve supply chain and labor constraints that have persisted since the end of COVID-19. With strong orders and slower delivery growth, book-to-bill ratios remained solid in Q4. In their public statements, OEMs indicated they expect to make steady progress toward resolving these challenges and gradually increasing deliveries in 2025. At the same time, continued healthy demand is expected to help maintain a balance between orders and deliveries.

TRANSACTIONS ($ VOLUME)

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Note that Q4 2024 figures reflect preliminary data and may increase as more transactions are reported to the FAA and data providers.

Total transaction unit volume stabilized in 2024 following declines in 2023, while dollar volume increased. In recent years, new aircraft deliveries were constrained by supply chain and labor shortages stemming from COVID-19-related disruptions. Delays in new aircraft certification further slowed deliveries. However, OEMs made progress in addressing these challenges, leading to a 1.7 percent increase in deliveries for the year. Dollar volume rose even more significantly — up 12.5 percent — driven by strong demand in the heavy jet segment. With several new aircraft models now certified and continued improvements in supply chain conditions, OEMs plan to increase deliveries in 2025.

Pre-owned transaction volume declined year-over-year, though dollar volume saw a slight increase as buyers continued to favor heavy jets. Market activity was tempered by economic uncertainty — despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth — as well as a disconnect between sellers seeking to preserve post-pandemic value gains and buyers waiting for prices to return to historical norms. Despite the modest overall decline in 2024, the market saw periods of strong activity, particularly over the summer and at year-end, signaling further stabilization moving into 2025. Additionally, newly certified models that entered service throughout the year may contribute to incremental supply of desirable aircraft, improving liquidity and supporting transaction growth in the coming year.

FOR SALE INVENTORY

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In Q4 2024, aircraft listings declined 8.9 percent compared to Q4 2023, ending a trend of year-over-year increases in aircraft listings that began in the latter half of 2022. For the full year, listings were up 2.6 percent compared to 2023 as the market normalized following disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic. During the post-pandemic period of rapid growth in 2021, many transactions involved unlisted aircraft while public listings were 25.3 percent lower than 2019. In 2022, sellers began to publicly list their aircraft more consistently (in keeping with the historical norm), driving up the number of new listings 13.3 percent year-over-year. Much of the increase in new listings involved older aircraft. In 2019, 13-year-old and older aircraft represented 58.4 percent of listings, a figure that rose to 68.3 percent by 2022 and 69.2 percent by 2024. Listings will likely remain stable in 2025 as the industry reverts to a more normal state.

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The number of aircraft available for sale ended Q4 2024 at 7.5 percent of the total fleet, up from 6.9 percent at the end of Q4 2023. As with aircraft listings, the increase was the result of market normalization following the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic. With more publicly listed aircraft, availability rose gradually from the all-time lows reached in 2022.

Still, availability remained below the last decade’s approximate average of 10 percent, aided by a slight decline from 7.8 percent in Q3. This decline was driven by a reduction in aircraft listings (as mentioned above) along with an increase in year-end transactions.

The decline was particularly evident for younger aircraft. Availability of 12-year-old and newer aircraft declined from 5.6 percent of the fleet in Q3 to 5 percent of the fleet in Q4. Availability of 13-year-old and older aircraft also declined, but at a slower pace, reaching 8.8 percent at the end of Q4 compared to 9 percent at the end of Q3.

RESIDUAL VALUE

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The above chart compares the year-over-year percentage change in the bluebook value of like-aged aircraft over time (e.g., the difference between the value of an eight-year-old aircraft from one year to the next). Global Jet Capital analyzes a basket of aircraft as a proxy for the overall market. Values vary on a model-by-model basis and observed increases or decreases in value are not necessarily applicable to any specific aircraft make/model. For the value of a specific aircraft, please contact a licensed aircraft appraiser.

Aircraft bluebook values have remained relatively stable for five quarters in a row. During the post-COVID period, when business jets were in high demand, availability declined and values increased. However, as availability increased in 2023 and 2024, the market shifted from a seller’s market to a more neutral state. Price negotiations between buyers and sellers became more balanced, resulting in stable values.

Values of like-aged aircraft in Q4 2024 were nearly even with one year ago, increasing only 0.1 percent. As like-aged aircraft remained stable, aircraft resumed historical depreciation patterns as they aged. Between Q3 and Q4, aircraft values depreciated 1.8 percent, in line with historical averages.

While overall values were largely stable, differences were observed across the install base in Q4. As mentioned above, much of the increase in availability came from the older aircraft segment. As a result, values for 13-year-old and older aircraft decreased 2.9 percent during the quarter, while values for 12-year-old and younger aircraft increased 1.3 percent.

It is worth noting that business jets are depreciating assets and a steady decline in the price of an aircraft over its lifespan is to be expected. The consensus among industry players is that supply and demand are well-balanced now and should support stable aircraft values in the near future.

\ CONCLUSION

Following the post-COVID growth period and subsequent return to normalization, Q4 2024 marked a period of stability for the business jet market

The macroeconomic environment remained steady despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Within the industry, flight operations increased year-over-year, and OEM backlogs remained strong. Transactions also stabilized, supported by strong new deliveries. Additionally, the growth in aircraft availability slowed, and depreciation rates remained at historical norms. With a solid 2024 performance, the market is well-positioned to sustain healthy activity levels in 2025.

 

DID YOU KNOW AN OPERATING LEASE PROVIDES AN OWNERSHIP EXPERIENCE WITHOUT BEING IN THE FULL BUSINESS OF OWNING AN AIRCRAFT?

GLOBAL JET CAPITAL RECENT TRANSACTIONS

Global Jet Capital is a leader in the business jet financing market, providing leases and loans for both new and used aircraft. Our clients are diverse but all value flexible financing solutions for their aircraft. Below is a brief overview of a few recent transactions that Global Jet Capital has facilitated.

RECENT TRANSACTIONS

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RECENT TRANSACTIONS

This deal demonstrates Global Jet Capital’s ability to move quickly and help our clients secure capital friendly financing for their aircraft.

In this case, our client found an aircraft that met their upgrade requirements but needed to secure financing quickly to proceed with the acquisition. Global Jet Capital vetted and approved the credit, provided documentation, and funded the purchase so that our client could successfully close on their (and the aircraft seller’s) timetable. With our global presence and experience, we seamlessly facilitated a transaction that involved a seller in one country and a buyer in another. At the same time, we provided a lease structure with an attractive monthly payment, featuring long-term repayment, a high LTV, and a fixed rate while minimizing the client’s day one capital outlay.

 

AIRCRAFT CLASS
Ultra-Long Range

NEW/PRE-OWNED
Pre-Owned

REGION
APAC

FINANCIAL PRODUCT(S)
Finance Lease



RECENT TRANSACTIONS

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Jet-icon

RECENT TRANSACTIONS

Many clients choose a Global Jet Capital operating lease to finance their business aircraft due to the flexibility this solution offers.

That was exactly the case with an existing North American-based client, whose lease was scheduled to expire well ahead of the delivery of their new aircraft. We helped to bridge the gap by tailoring an extension of the client’s existing lease to meet their needs. When the client originally selected an operating lease, they valued minimizing capital outlay while maintaining flexibility, goals that were validated by the lease extension. On top of this, we worked closely with the client throughout their internal approval process and utilized our knowledge of market conditions to help them optimize upfront costs and establish a favorable payment schedule.

AIRCRAFT CLASS
Ultra-Long Range

NEW/PRE-OWNED
Pre-Owned

REGION
Americas

FINANCIAL PRODUCT(S)
Operating Lease Extension



RECENT TRANSACTIONS

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Jet-icon

RECENT TRANSACTIONS

Global Jet Capital earned this existing APAC-based client’s business by building a long-term relationship based on mutual trust and a consistent ethos of “promises made, promises kept.”

In this case, the client was looking to upgrade to a newer aircraft that better met their evolving lift requirements. With a tight deadline to meet, the client had confidence in our ability to close the deal on time with a solution that addressed their needs. With our unique insight into this client’s operating needs and our familiarity with regional complexities, we tailored a flexible financing structure that not only met their needs, but their timeline.

 

 

AIRCRAFT CLASS
Ultra-Long Range

NEW/PRE-OWNED
Pre-Owned

REGION
APAC

FINANCIAL PRODUCT(S)
Finance Lease

Notes

iOxford Economics, iiWells Fargo,  iiiWells Fargo,  ivWells Fargo,  vWells Fargo,  viWells Fargo,  viiWingX and Global Jet Capital Analysis,  viiiCompany financial reports. Note that results from Dassault are not available at time of publication and are not included in this report.,  ixJetNet and Global Jet Capital Analysis. Units are in parentheses.,  xAmstat and Global Jet Capital Analysis,  xiJetNet and Global Jet Capital Analysis,  xiiAircraft Bluebook and Global Jet Capital Analysis

PREVIOUS MARKET BRIEFS

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